…Another global crisis loomsTHERE are fresh indications that the global financial sector is heading for another round of meltdown. This is in view of last week release by international rating agency Moody's Investors Service of the financial state of major banks in the world.
In the new rating, Moody lowered the credit ratings of 15 major banks, including Bank of America, JPMorgan Chase and Goldman Sachs, saying their long-term prospects for profitability and growth are shrinking.
It even classified Bank of America, Citigroup and Morgan Stanley among the group of weakest banks.
The ratings agency said that it was especially concerned about banks with significant financial markets businesses because those markets have become so volatile. Some of the largest European banks were also downgraded, including Barclays, Deutsche Bank and HSBC.
Financial experts opined that the downgrading was "not unexpected".
"What's going to happen now, the banks will have to keep more money on hand and won't be able to lend as much money, that means they will make less money," they said.
These banks were vulnerable to "outsized losses", Moody's global banking managing director Greg Bauer said in a statement.
These behemoth banks are all major players in the global stock and bond markets, which have become extremely volatile. However, Bauer pointed out that some of the banks, like JPMorgan Chase and HSBC, have reliable buffers in more stable businesses which could act as "shock absorbers" during a crisis.
The downgrades reflect Moody's concern over the ability of the banks to repay their debts during times of crisis. Moody's had said in February that it was considering downgrading the credit ratings of major banks in the US and in Europe.
A downgrade usually means banks will have to pay more for its debt.
Investors demand higher interest for riskier debt, which is what the downgrades represent. However, with interest rates already at rock-bottom levels, the downgrades may not affect the cost of funding for the banks that much.
In a sign that investors were taking the news in stride, stocks of major US banks rose in after-hours electronic trading. Moody's made its announcement after regular stock trading had closed.
Citigroup said in a statement that it "strongly disagrees" with Moody's assessment. Morgan Stanley also disagreed with Moody's action.
The downgrades come at a time of great uncertainty in the global economy.
Europe's currency union is under threat, the US economy is slowing and the red-hot economies of India, Brazil and China are cooling. Financial markets have also been extremely volatile.
Last Thursday, the Dow Jones industrial average plunged 251 points, its second-worst loss of the year, as new reports indicating slower manufacturing in the US and China made investors fearful that the global economy could beheading for another slump.
Moody's has been on a downgrading spree lately. In June, Moody's downgraded Spain by three notches, after downgrading 16 Spanish lenders in May. It also cut the ratings on seven German and three Austrian lenders in June.
In its latest report, Moody didnot treat all large banks alike. It sorted the banks it was downgrading into three categories, with JPMorgan, HSBC, and Royal Bank of Canada in the top one.
Moody's said those firms have stable businesses that offset losses from the volatile markets businesses.
These banks have also managed to contain their exposure to risky European government debt, Moody's said. While all three were downgraded, their debt had the highest ratings among the 15 banks affected.
The second group included Goldman Sachs, Deutsche Bank and Credit Suisse.
In its last group were the weakest banks: Bank of America, Citigroup, Morgan Stanley, and Royal Bank of Scotland. Moody's said these banks have either had "problems in risk management or have a history of high volatility".
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